Research DB
Wagers Don evaluated and did not make official. PASS means not taken. WATCH keeps the target number that would qualify. These are not tickets.
3 research records · source Hard Rock Bet, BetMGM · captured Oct 29, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers
MEM +7.5 +100 Hard Rock: Pinnacle -104/-106 fair 49.76%, EV -0.48%; Unabated fair +7.5 +100 -> EV 0.0%. Blend ~-0.24%. PASS (behind NOP ML).
Source: Hard Rock Bet · captured Oct 29, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
GB -3.5 -105 Hard Rock: Pinnacle -108/-102 fair 50.72%, EV -0.97%; Unabated fair GB -3.5 -102 -> EV ~-1.4%. PASS.
Source: Hard Rock Bet · captured Oct 29, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans
Under 236.5 -110 BetMGM: Pinnacle fair EV -1.14%; Unabated fair u236.5 -102 -> EV ~-3.6%. PASS.
Source: BetMGM · captured Oct 29, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
3 research records · source ESPN Bet · captured Oct 28, 2026, 2:16 PM UTC
Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves
MIN ML -155 ESPN Bet: Pinnacle -165/+148 fair 61.10%, EV +0.53%; Unabated fair MIN -151 -> EV ~-0.6%. PASS.
Source: ESPN Bet · captured Oct 28, 2026, 2:16 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC ML +165 ESPN Bet: Pinnacle +154/-172 fair 37.92%, EV +0.49%; Unabated fair LAC +166 -> EV ~-0.4%. PASS.
Source: ESPN Bet · captured Oct 28, 2026, 2:16 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Kennesaw State Owls @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
MTSU ML -105 ESPN Bet: Pinnacle -112/+101 fair 51.56%, EV +0.66%; Unabated fair MTSU -106 -> EV ~+0.2%. Screen's KSU +122 Caesars row was a stale DB quote (API Caesars KSU -102). PASS.
Source: ESPN Bet · captured Oct 28, 2026, 2:16 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
3 research records · source BetMGM, BetRivers, Caesars · captured Oct 27, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC
Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays
WS G4 Under 7 +105 BetMGM: Pinnacle -103/-109 fair Under 49.28%, EV +1.03%; Unabated fair u7 +105 -> EV 0.0%; blend ~+0.5%. MIL starter not confirmed (bullpen game, Drohan/May reported), fails the MLB confirmed-starter rule. PASS.
Source: BetMGM · captured Oct 27, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers
POR ML +125 BetRivers/Bally/betPARX: Pinnacle +118/-133 fair 44.32%, EV -0.29%; Unabated fair POR +123 -> EV +0.89%; blend ~+0.3%. Sharpe out, Henderson Q. PASS.
Source: BetRivers · captured Oct 27, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays
TB ML +111 Caesars: Pinnacle +106/-115 fair 47.50%, EV +0.23%; Unabated fair TB +111 -> EV 0.0%. Starter unconfirmed for MIL. PASS.
Source: Caesars · captured Oct 27, 2026, 2:15 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
4 research records · source BetRivers, betPARX, ESPN Bet · captured Oct 26, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz
MEM ML +100 BetRivers/Bally/betPARX: Pinnacle -106/-104 fair 50.24%, EV +0.48%; Unabated fair MEM +102 (49.5%) -> EV -1.0%; blend ~-0.06%. Both teams on a back-to-back; Edey out. PASS.
Source: BetRivers · captured Oct 26, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Cleveland Cavaliers
CLE ML -157 betPARX/BetRivers/Bally: Pinnacle -163/+143 fair 60.57%, EV -0.85%; Unabated fair CLE -158 (61.2%) -> EV +0.25%; blend ~-0.3%. PASS.
Source: betPARX · captured Oct 26, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays
TB ML -111 ESPN Bet: Pinnacle -114/+106 fair 52.38%, EV -0.42%; Unabated fair TB -110 -> EV -0.4%. PASS.
Source: ESPN Bet · captured Oct 26, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
PHI +4.5 -105 ESPN Bet (MNF): Pinnacle -109/-101 fair 50.96%, EV -0.50%. The handicapper sheet's check tally favors PHI (+2), but none of its angles held up in the 2018-25 backtest (division dogs 53.1%, p=0.37; tally>=2 51.1%). Price is fair. PASS.
Source: ESPN Bet · captured Oct 26, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
1 research record · source Bally Bet (also BetRivers, betPARX, Hard Rock at +250) · captured Oct 25, 2026, 9:22 PM UTC
Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks
NON-OFFICIAL LEAN / also-play (does not count in the Official record): ORL ML +250 at Bally Bet/BetRivers/betPARX/Hard Rock. Pinnacle -254/+228 power-devig fair ORL 29.15% (+243) gives EV +2.01%; Unabated fair ORL +241 (29.33%) gives EV +2.64%. Not issued as Official because today already has an Official (GB@DET DET -3.5). Play to +248 (clears +1.5% vs both fair lines); at +245 or worse it falls below the bar.
Target: — / +248
Source: Bally Bet (also BetRivers, betPARX, Hard Rock at +250) · captured Oct 25, 2026, 9:22 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
4 research records · source Bally Bet, DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics · captured Oct 25, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
SEA ML -143 Bally/BetRivers/betPARX: Pinnacle -151/+136 fair 59.0%, EV +0.26% (below bar). Unabated best ML SEA -140 shown; fair ML not captured. PASS.
Source: Bally Bet · captured Oct 25, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
TB +3 -112 DK: Pinnacle -117/+106 fair 52.7%, EV -0.21%; Unabated TB +3 -108/-108 (ambiguous read) -> negative. PASS.
Source: DraftKings · captured Oct 25, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
MIA +4 -108 BetMGM: Pinnacle fair 50.96%, EV -1.85%; Unabated fair MIA +4 -101 -> EV about -3.2%. PASS.
Source: BetMGM · captured Oct 25, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders
LV +3.5 -115 Fanatics: Pinnacle fair 52.5%, EV -1.87%; Unabated fair LV +3.5 -109 -> EV about -2.5%. PASS.
Source: Fanatics · captured Oct 25, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
5 research records · source Hard Rock, Caesars, ESPN Bet, BetRivers · captured Oct 24, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC
Iowa State Cyclones @ Arizona Wildcats
ISU ML +325 Hard Rock: Pinnacle +282/-331 -> fair 24.31%, EV +3.33% but outside the -250..+250 price band. Unabated fair ISU +318 -> EV +1.66% (clears both models) but outside price band; PASS.
Source: Hard Rock · captured Oct 24, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Vanderbilt Commodores @ Kentucky Wildcats
Under 51.5 -107 Caesars: Pinnacle -117/+100 fair 52.0%, EV +0.59% (below bar). Unabated fair 51.5 -103/+103 -> EV about -1.9%. PASS.
Source: Caesars · captured Oct 24, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
USC Trojans @ Wisconsin Badgers
WIS ML +135 ESPN Bet: Pinnacle +127/-141 fair 42.69%, EV +0.31% (below bar). Unabated fair WIS +136 -> EV about -0.4%. PASS.
Source: ESPN Bet · captured Oct 24, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Minnesota Golden Gophers
MINN ML +275 BetRivers: Pinnacle +250/-289 fair 26.82%, EV +0.56%; outside price band and below bar. PASS.
Source: BetRivers · captured Oct 24, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers
World Series G2 Under 6.5 -105 ESPN Bet: EV -1.45% vs Pinnacle; best MLB row. PASS.
Source: ESPN Bet · captured Oct 24, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
5 research records · source betPARX, Hard Rock, ESPN Bet · captured Oct 23, 2026, 2:03 PM UTC
Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors
GSW ML -167 betPARX/Bally/BetRivers: Pinnacle -174/+156 -> fair 62.37%, EV -0.28%. SharpModels GSW 76% (by 7.0) supports but is 14pp off market (over 8pp cap). PASS.
Source: betPARX · captured Oct 23, 2026, 2:03 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Orlando Magic
ORL ML -105 Hard Rock: Pinnacle -109/-101 -> fair 50.96%, EV -0.50%. SharpModels ORL 53% (by 1.8) mildly supports. Negative EV; PASS.
Source: Hard Rock · captured Oct 23, 2026, 2:03 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics
BOS -2.5 -105 ESPN Bet: Pinnacle -109/-101 -> fair 50.96%, EV -0.50%. SharpModels NYK 60% contradicts. PASS.
Source: ESPN Bet · captured Oct 23, 2026, 2:03 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -4.5 -105 betPARX: Pinnacle -108/-102 -> fair 50.72%, EV -0.97%. SharpModels GSW by 7.0 supports. PASS.
Source: betPARX · captured Oct 23, 2026, 2:03 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers
TB@MIL Over 6.5 -105 ESPN Bet: Pinnacle -109/-103 -> fair 50.72%, EV -0.98%. SharpModels MIL 59% vs Pinnacle MIL fair 62.9% (no total model). PASS.
Source: ESPN Bet · captured Oct 23, 2026, 2:03 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
5 research records · source DraftKings, Caesars, Hard Rock Bet, ESPN Bet · captured Oct 22, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
CHI ML -155 DK/BetMGM: Pinnacle -159/+143 -> fair 60.24%, EV -0.90%. SharpModels NE-CHI 50/50 contradicts by 10pp. NE out both starting guards (Vera-Tucker, Ben Brown) and CB Carlton Davis; CHI out Monangai, Sanborn, Edwards doubtful. PASS.
Source: DraftKings · captured Oct 22, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
CHI -3 -102 DK: Pinnacle -105/-105 -> fair 50.00%, EV -0.98%. SharpModels CHI by 1.9 contradicts. PASS.
Source: DraftKings · captured Oct 22, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
DEN +8.5 -105 Caesars: Pinnacle -107/-103 -> fair 50.48%, EV -1.44%. SharpModels OKC by 8.0 (80%) leans DEN +8.5 by half a point. PASS.
Source: Caesars · captured Oct 22, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
East Carolina Pirates @ Memphis Tigers
MEM ML -375 Hard Rock: Pinnacle -407/+339 -> fair 79.20%, EV +0.32% (the only positive tracker-eligible row) but outside the -250..+250 price band and no CFB second model. PASS.
Source: Hard Rock Bet · captured Oct 22, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
NE ML +140 ESPN Bet: Pinnacle fair 39.76%, EV -4.58%. SharpModels NE 50% supports but is 10pp off market (over the 8pp cap). PASS.
Source: ESPN Bet · captured Oct 22, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
5 research records · source Hard Rock Bet, DraftKings, Bally Bet · captured Oct 21, 2026, 2:06 PM UTC
New Mexico State Aggies @ Sam Houston State Bearkats
SHSU ML +125 Hard Rock: Pinnacle +117 / NMSU -129 -> fair 44.82%, EV +0.84% (below +1.5%). No second model for CFB. PASS.
Source: Hard Rock Bet · captured Oct 21, 2026, 2:06 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards
WAS ML -175 DK: Pinnacle -182/+163 -> fair 63.42%, EV -0.34%. The spread at -102 is the better way to the same side. PASS.
Source: DraftKings · captured Oct 21, 2026, 2:06 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Indiana Pacers @ New Orleans Pelicans
NOP ML +143 Bally/BetRivers/betPARX: Pinnacle +136/-150 -> fair 41.09%, EV -0.15%. SharpModels NOP 72% supports but is 31pp off market. PASS.
Source: Bally Bet · captured Oct 21, 2026, 2:06 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -1.5 -108 Bally: Pinnacle -113/+102 -> fair 51.79%, EV -0.25%. SharpModels MEM 62% supports. PASS.
Source: Bally Bet · captured Oct 21, 2026, 2:06 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
New Mexico State Aggies @ Sam Houston State Bearkats
SHSU +2.5 +100 Hard Rock: Pinnacle fair 49.76%, EV -0.48%. PASS.
Source: Hard Rock Bet · captured Oct 21, 2026, 2:06 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
6 research records · source Hard Rock Bet, ESPN Bet, betPARX, Caesars, DraftKings · captured Oct 20, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
PHI +4.5 +100 Hard Rock: Pinnacle NYK -4.5 -107 / PHI +4.5 -103 -> fair 49.52%, EV -0.96%. SharpModels NYK 86% / +10.2 contradicts; Simons, Wade, Bona questionable. PASS.
Source: Hard Rock Bet · captured Oct 20, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons
DET ML +105 ESPN Bet: Pinnacle BOS -115 / DET +104 -> fair 47.74%, EV -2.13%. SharpModels DET 64% supports but is 16pp off market (ratings carry-over). Negative vs Pinnacle. PASS.
Source: ESPN Bet · captured Oct 20, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
NYK -4.5 -108 betPARX: Pinnacle fair 50.48%, EV -2.78%. SharpModels NYK +10.2 supports but implies a 24pp ML gap vs market. PASS.
Source: betPARX · captured Oct 20, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Missouri State Bears @ Delaware Blue Hens
Missouri State ML +125 Caesars: Pinnacle +122 / DEL -135 -> fair 43.73%, EV -1.61%. No second model for CFB (SharpModels has no CFB; Unabated logged out). PASS.
Source: Caesars · captured Oct 20, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
South Alabama Jaguars @ Marshall Thundering Herd
South Alabama ML -152 Caesars: Pinnacle -152/+137 -> fair 59.17%, EV -1.90%. No second model. PASS.
Source: Caesars · captured Oct 20, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders @ Florida International Panthers
FIU ML -380 DraftKings: Pinnacle -393/+328 -> fair 78.62%, EV -0.69%; outside the -250..+250 price range. PASS.
Source: DraftKings · captured Oct 20, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
5 research records · source ESPN Bet, Caesars, BetMGM · captured Oct 19, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
TB ML -145 ESPN Bet: Pinnacle -147/+135 fair 58.56% -> EV -1.05%; SharpModels TB 58% roughly equal to Pinnacle (no extra support). Run line preferred for positive Pinnacle EV. PASS.
Source: ESPN Bet · captured Oct 19, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6.5 -110 Caesars: Pinnacle -114/+102 fair 51.91% -> EV -0.90%. No second model for totals. PASS.
Source: Caesars · captured Oct 19, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
WAS +7.5 -110 Caesars: Pinnacle -109/-101 fair 50.96% -> EV -2.71%; SharpModels SF 83% / rating margin SF +11.3, contradicts. PASS.
Source: Caesars · captured Oct 19, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
Under 52 -110 Caesars: Pinnacle -110/-102 fair 50.96% -> EV -2.72%. PASS.
Source: Caesars · captured Oct 19, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
SF -7.5 -105 BetMGM: Pinnacle -101/-109 fair 49.04% -> EV -4.26%; SharpModels SF +11.3 margin supports SF, but the SF ML gap (SM 83% vs Pinnacle 79.5%) ignores Bosa/Deebo being out. PASS.
Source: BetMGM · captured Oct 19, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
5 research records · source Caesars, DraftKings, ESPN Bet · captured Oct 18, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
KC ML -400 Caesars: Pinnacle -435/+358 fair 80.22% -> EV +0.28% (below 1.5%), and price is outside the -250..+250 band; SharpModels KC 76% < Pinnacle 80% (does not support). PASS.
Source: Caesars · captured Oct 18, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
NYJ +7.5 -112 DK: Pinnacle -117/+106 fair 52.72% -> EV -0.21%; SharpModels strongly NE (84%), contradicts. PASS.
Source: DraftKings · captured Oct 18, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
TEN +6.5 -104 Caesars: Pinnacle -108/-102 fair 50.72% -> EV -0.51%; SharpModels IND 79%, contradicts. PASS.
Source: Caesars · captured Oct 18, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TB ML +120 DK: Pinnacle +116/-128 fair 45.02% -> EV -0.95% (re-check -1.17% vs +116/-129); SharpModels TB 48% supportive, but the +2.5 spread was preferred given its smaller Pinnacle deficit. PASS.
Source: DraftKings · captured Oct 18, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders
BUF ML -230 ESPN Bet: Pinnacle -223/+197 fair 67.92% -> EV -2.56%; SharpModels BUF 77% is >8pp above Pinnacle, treated as model error/injury-blind. PASS.
Source: ESPN Bet · captured Oct 18, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
6 research records · source Hard Rock, best available, DraftKings, ESPN Bet · captured Oct 17, 2026, 2:48 PM UTC
Kansas Jayhawks @ Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas ML +145 Hard Rock: Pinnacle +131/-149 power-devig EV +1.93%, but Unabated fair +145 -> EV 0.00%. Fails dual gate (una-no-ev). PASS.
Source: Hard Rock · captured Oct 17, 2026, 2:48 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Western Michigan Broncos @ Central Michigan Chippewas
Western Michigan ML was -250 ESPN Bet at 9:09 AM CT (Pin EV +1.16%), moved to -280; best now -275, out of price band. Unabated fair -267 -> EV -0.79% at -275. PASS.
Source: best available · captured Oct 17, 2026, 2:48 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Nevada Wolf Pack @ North Dakota State Bison
Nevada +14.5 -108 DK: Pinnacle EV +0.42% (below 1.5%); Unabated fair at +14 (not the same number). PASS.
Source: DraftKings · captured Oct 17, 2026, 2:48 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Northwestern Wildcats @ Michigan State Spartans
Over 49.5 -105 ESPN Bet: Pinnacle EV +0.2% (below 1.5%); Unabated at 50.5 (not the same number). PASS.
Source: ESPN Bet · captured Oct 17, 2026, 2:48 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Ball State Cardinals @ Bowling Green Falcons
Bowling Green ML -230: Unabated fair -211 -> EV -2.65%. PASS.
Source: best available · captured Oct 17, 2026, 2:48 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Rice Owls
Tulsa ML -180: Unabated fair -177 -> EV -0.60%. PASS.
Source: best available · captured Oct 17, 2026, 2:48 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
4 research records · source Caesars, betPARX, ESPN Bet, FanDuel · captured Oct 16, 2026, 5:29 PM UTC
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
12:29 PM CT fresh pull: Over 6.5 -112 Caesars EV Pin -1.09% / Una -1.72%. Starters unconfirmed. PASS.
Source: Caesars · captured Oct 16, 2026, 5:29 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Washington Huskies @ Purdue Boilermakers
12:29 PM CT fresh pull: Purdue Boilermakers -3 -110 betPARX EV Pin -2.26% / Una -1.32%. PASS.
Source: betPARX · captured Oct 16, 2026, 5:29 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Washington Huskies @ Purdue Boilermakers
12:29 PM CT fresh pull: Purdue Boilermakers ML -155 ESPN Bet EV Pin -1.96% / Una -2.36%. Prior -165 candidate. PASS.
Source: ESPN Bet · captured Oct 16, 2026, 5:29 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
12:29 PM CT fresh pull: Cleveland Guardians +1.5 -192 FanDuel EV Pin -2.13% / Una -2.23%. FanDuel-only price, excluded. PASS.
Source: FanDuel · captured Oct 16, 2026, 5:29 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
2 research records · source Caesars, BetUS · captured Oct 15, 2026, 8:03 PM UTC
MIL @ LAD
3:03 PM CT: MIL +135 Caesars EV Pin -1.62% / Una -2.89% (Pin fair 41.86%, Una 41.32%). Offshore +139 GTBets not mainstream. SP Shane Drohan vs Glasnow now listed. PASS.
Source: Caesars · captured Oct 15, 2026, 8:03 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
SEA @ DEN
3:03 PM CT: SEA -140 BetUS EV Pin -2.83% / Una -1.83%. Worse dual EV than DEN +2.5. PASS.
Source: BetUS · captured Oct 15, 2026, 8:03 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
2 research records · source MyBookie.ag, Caesars · captured Oct 15, 2026, 4:03 PM UTC
MIL @ LAD
EV Pin -1.50% / Una -0.76% at −156 MyBookie (Una fair −153). Better vs Una than DEN but MIL SP still TBD on Stats API; dual avg worse than TB. PASS.
Source: MyBookie.ag · captured Oct 15, 2026, 4:03 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
MIL @ LAD
MIL +135 best (Caesars/LowVig/BetOnline) below Pin fair +140 (41.59%) and Unabated +142 — EV ≈ −2.3%/−2.9%. SM MIL 48% disagrees with sharp fairs. MIL SP TBD. PASS.
Source: Caesars · captured Oct 15, 2026, 4:03 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
3 research records · source SouthPoint (NV only; screen best) / mainstream best +112 BetOnline, +111 Caesars, Caesars (best), BetUS (best) · captured Oct 15, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC
TB @ CLE
Pinnacle fair 46.71% and Unabated fair 46.30% (avg ~46.5%) both beat +120 implied 45.45% (EV +2.76% Pin / +1.85% Unabated; SM 50% = +3.3pp vs Pin), but +120 is only at SouthPoint (Nevada-only) and prediction/P2P markets. At mainstream best +112 EV is -1.0% vs Pinnacle and -1.8% vs Unabated. WATCH +120 at a mainstream book before first pitch.
Target: — / +120
Source: SouthPoint (NV only; screen best) / mainstream best +112 BetOnline, +111 Caesars · captured Oct 15, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
MIL @ LAD
SharpModels MIL 48% but Pinnacle fair 41.59% (+140) and Unabated fair +142 both price MIL below the best +135 (EV -2.3% vs Pinnacle). MIL starter TBD. PASS.
Source: Caesars (best) · captured Oct 15, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
SEA @ DEN
SharpModels DEN 48%, but Pinnacle fair 43.21% (+131) and Unabated fair +134 both beat the best +129/+130 (EV -1.05% vs Pinnacle). Spread (SEA -2.5 / DEN +2.5) and total 40.5 also about -2.4% EV vs Pinnacle and below Unabated fair. PASS.
Source: BetUS (best) · captured Oct 15, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
4 research records · source Caesars (best) / FanDuel +146, BetOnline.ag (best) / FanDuel -174, FanDuel (best), LowVig.ag (best) / FanDuel +110 · captured Oct 14, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC
MIL @ LAD
Blended 44.97% vs +150 implied 40.0% (+5.0pp; +5.5pp vs no-vig 39.5%) but both models favor LAD outright (nF 57.06, SM 53). The MIL value is mostly SharpModels (47%, +7.0pp), which did not update for Snell (same 47/53 as yesterday). numberFire alone is +2.9pp at +150 (+2.3pp at FanDuel +146), below the Official bar as applied (10-06 nF alone +4.4pp). Pinnacle +151 (fair 39.07%) is informational only. WATCH at +157 or better.
Target: — / +157
Source: Caesars (best) / FanDuel +146 · captured Oct 14, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
MIL @ LAD
Both models favor LAD (nF 57.06%, SM 53%), but the market prices LAD at 60.5% no-vig / 62.0% at best -163. Blended -6.9pp vs the best price; nF alone -4.9pp. No edge.
Source: BetOnline.ag (best) / FanDuel -174 · captured Oct 14, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
SEA @ DEN
SharpModels DEN 48% vs no-vig 43.3% (+4.7pp) but NFL numberFire HTTP 500 and game is Thursday (no early-week NFL Officials). PINN_SM dry-run: Pinnacle DEN +124 fair 43.35%, EV at +128 -1.2% (pinn-no-ev).
Source: FanDuel (best) · captured Oct 14, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
TB @ CLE
SharpModels 50/50 vs no-vig TB 45.5% (+4.5pp; +3.5pp vs +115) but game is Thursday, CLE SP TBD, numberFire 10-15 board not published (HTTP 500). Re-screen tomorrow; PASS today (no qualifying target until nF posts and CLE SP is named).
Source: LowVig.ag (best) / FanDuel +110 · captured Oct 14, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
4 research records · source BetOnline.ag/LowVig.ag (best) / FanDuel +150, FanDuel (best), LowVig.ag/BetOnline.ag (best) / FanDuel +112, MyBookie.ag (best) / FanDuel -132 · captured Oct 13, 2026, 2:35 PM UTC
MIL @ LAD
SharpModels MIL 47% vs no-vig ~38.8% (~+8.2pp paper) but game is tomorrow (Oct 14), numberFire 10-14 board not yet published (HTTP 500), LAD SP TBD, and SM's absolute side is LAD 53%. SM-only/early — WATCH only; re-screen tomorrow when nF posts.
Target: — / +170
Source: BetOnline.ag/LowVig.ag (best) / FanDuel +150 · captured Oct 13, 2026, 2:35 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
SEA @ DEN
SharpModels DEN 48% vs no-vig ~41.8% (~+6.2pp paper) but NFL numberFire dated odds HTTP 500 (10-13/14/15). SM-only cannot Official; SM absolute side still SEA 52%. Early (Thu).
Source: FanDuel (best) · captured Oct 13, 2026, 2:35 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CLE @ TB
Both models agree TB (nF 53.05%, SM 57%). CLE blended ~45.0% vs no-vig ~44.55% is only ~+0.4pp and negative vs best +121 (45.25%). Fades the agreed side; far below Official bar.
Source: LowVig.ag/BetOnline.ag (best) / FanDuel +112 · captured Oct 13, 2026, 2:35 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CLE @ TB
Dual-model agreement on TB (nF 53.05%, SM 57%), but blended ~55.0% is below market no-vig ~55.45% (−0.4pp) and best-price implied 55.95% (−0.9pp). No edge.
Source: MyBookie.ag (best) / FanDuel -132 · captured Oct 13, 2026, 2:35 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
4 research records · source BetUS (best) / consensus ~+116 FanDuel, MyBookie.ag (best), BetOnline.ag/LowVig.ag (best), BetOnline.ag/LowVig.ag (best) / consensus ~-136 FanDuel · captured Oct 12, 2026, 2:36 PM UTC
LAD @ MIL
Blended ~51.0% vs +120 implied 45.5% (~+5.6pp) and vs no-vig ~44.7% (~+6.3pp), but absolute sides split: numberFire LAD 51.94% vs SharpModels MIL 54%. No dual-model agreement (same as G1).
Source: BetUS (best) / consensus ~+116 FanDuel · captured Oct 12, 2026, 2:36 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
BUF @ LAR
SharpModels BUF 49% vs market no-vig ~38.5% (~+10.5pp paper) but NFL numberFire dated odds HTTP 500. SM-only cannot Official; absolute SM still barely leans LAR 51%.
Source: MyBookie.ag (best) · captured Oct 12, 2026, 2:36 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CLE @ TB
Both models agree TB (~58–59%) over CLE; CLE blended ~41.5% vs no-vig ~39.7% is only ~+1.8pp and fades the agreed favorite. Below Official bar; TB itself has negative edge vs market.
Source: BetOnline.ag/LowVig.ag (best) · captured Oct 12, 2026, 2:36 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
LAD @ MIL
numberFire LAD 51.94% is below market no-vig ~55.3%; SharpModels LAD 46%. Blended negative edge; models split sides.
Source: BetOnline.ag/LowVig.ag (best) / consensus ~-136 FanDuel · captured Oct 12, 2026, 2:36 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
2 research records · source LowVig/BetOnline/BetUS/MyBookie (best) / consensus ~-105, BetRivers (best) / consensus ~-112 · captured Oct 11, 2026, 2:10 PM UTC
LAD @ MIL
numberFire LAD 60.2% (~+11pp vs ~49% no-vig) but SharpModels LAD 46% is below market. Models split sides; no dual-model agreement.
Source: LowVig/BetOnline/BetUS/MyBookie (best) / consensus ~-105 · captured Oct 11, 2026, 2:10 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
LAD @ MIL
SharpModels MIL 54% (~+3pp) but numberFire MIL 39.8% is far below market. Blended below implied: no edge.
Source: BetRivers (best) / consensus ~-112 · captured Oct 11, 2026, 2:10 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
2 research records · source BetUS (best) / consensus ~-137, BetOnline/LowVig/Bovada (best) / consensus ~+118 · captured Oct 10, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC
CWS @ CLE
SM CLE 60% (~+3.1pp at -132) but numberFire CLE 52.45% is below market (~-4pp). Blended ~56.2% vs -132 implied 56.9%: no edge. Burke vs G. Williams.
Source: BetUS (best) / consensus ~-137 · captured Oct 10, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CWS @ CLE
numberFire CWS 47.55% (~+2.3pp at +121) but SharpModels CWS 40% is below market. Blended ~43.8% vs +121 implied 45.3%: no edge.
Source: BetOnline/LowVig/Bovada (best) / consensus ~+118 · captured Oct 10, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
2 research records · source Fanatics (best) / consensus -109, Caesars (best) / consensus -102 · captured Oct 9, 2026, 2:35 PM UTC
Florida State @ Louisville
Screen only: market LOU -3.5 (ML -180/+150, ~62% LOU no-vig). CFB Official stack frozen; no approved model probability, so no measurable edge.
Source: Fanatics (best) / consensus -109 · captured Oct 9, 2026, 2:35 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Iowa @ Washington
Screen only: market UW -2.5 (ML -148/+125). CFB Official stack frozen; no approved model probability.
Source: Caesars (best) / consensus -102 · captured Oct 9, 2026, 2:35 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
4 research records · source consensus-med / best +131 Courtside, consensus-med / best +143 LowVig.ag, consensus-med / best -102 LowVig.ag, consensus-med / best -115 BetOnline.ag · captured Oct 7, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC
LAD @ ATL
SM ATL 48% vs novig ~42.4% (~+5.6pp) but numberFire ATL 43.30% is right at market (+0.0pp at best +131). Blended ~45.6% vs +131 implied 43.3% (~+2.3pp) — no dual-model agreement; Glasnow vs Mahle, LAD leads 2-1.
Source: consensus-med / best +131 Courtside · captured Oct 7, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
TB @ NYY
SM TB 45% vs novig ~40.2% (~+4.8pp) but numberFire TB 41.12% ≈ market (−0.0pp at best +143). Blended ~+1.9pp at best price — SM-only edge, no dual-model support; N. Martinez vs Fried.
Source: consensus-med / best +143 LowVig.ag · captured Oct 7, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
MIL @ SD
nF MIL 51.90% (~+1.4pp at -102) and SM 50/50 (≈ −0.5pp) vs novig ~49.1% — thin, and MIL Game 4 starter still TBD in Stats API and FanDuel Research.
Source: consensus-med / best -102 LowVig.ag · captured Oct 7, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CLE @ CWS
Models split sides: numberFire CWS 54.92% vs SharpModels CLE 51%; market CWS ~52.2% no-vig. Blend ≈ market either side.
Source: consensus-med / best -115 BetOnline.ag · captured Oct 7, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
1 research record · source consensus-med / best -103 BetOnline.ag · captured Oct 6, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC
LAD @ ATL
Models split: SharpModels LAD 52% vs numberFire ATL 50.31% with market ~50/50 no-vig (Yamamoto vs Sale, series tied 1-1). No dual-model agreement and edge ~0-2pp either side.
Source: consensus-med / best -103 BetOnline.ag · captured Oct 6, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
3 research records · source consensus-med / best +111 Caesars, consensus-med / best -116 FanDuel, consensus-med / best -147 BetUS · captured Oct 5, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC
NYY @ TB
SM TB 53% vs novig ~46.4% (~+6.6pp) on ALDS G2 home dog — largest day-of paper lean, but FanDuel/numberFire dated odds still HTTP 500 (Official dual-model blocked). SM-only, mid-size playoff lean; same pattern as prior SM-only DS leans that were PASSed. No Bryant override.
Source: consensus-med / best +111 Caesars · captured Oct 5, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
ATL @ NO
SM NO 54% vs novig ~52.0% (~+2.0pp) on MNF — thin, near pick'em; SM-only with dual-model blocked.
Source: consensus-med / best -116 FanDuel · captured Oct 5, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CWS @ CLE
SM CLE 59% vs novig ~58.2% (~+0.8pp) — essentially at market; SM-only; dual-model blocked.
Source: consensus-med / best -147 BetUS · captured Oct 5, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
7 research records · source consensus-med / best +164 DraftKings, consensus-med / best -178 FanDuel, consensus-med / best +122 BetOnline·LowVig, consensus-med / best -148 DraftKings, consensus-med / best +144 BetOnline·LowVig, consensus-med / best -130 BetOnline·LowVig·BetUS, consensus-med / best -152 BetUS · captured Oct 4, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC
LAR @ PHI
SM PHI 56% vs novig ~37.0% (~+19.0pp) on Week 5 LAR@PHI — largest day-of NFL paper lean, but FanDuel/numberFire dated odds still HTTP 500 (Official dual-model blocked). Classic SM chalk-softness vs market (home dog +3.5 market vs SM ~PHI -2.7). SM-only insufficient for Official; no Bryant override.
Source: consensus-med / best +164 DraftKings · captured Oct 4, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
NYJ @ CHI
SM CHI 81% vs novig ~63.1% (~+17.9pp) — large SM chalk lean with dual-model blocked; SM-only PASS only.
Source: consensus-med / best -178 FanDuel · captured Oct 4, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
ARI @ NYG
SM NYG 60% vs novig ~44.3% (~+15.7pp) with market home dog +2.5 vs SM ~NYG -4.5 — same dual-model / chalk-softness blockers.
Source: consensus-med / best +122 BetOnline·LowVig · captured Oct 4, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
DAL @ HOU
SM HOU 70% vs novig ~58.4% (~+11.6pp) — SM-only with Official dual-model blocked.
Source: consensus-med / best -148 DraftKings · captured Oct 4, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
GB @ TB
SM TB 50% vs novig ~39.9% (~+10.1pp) on GB@TB — dual-model blocked; SM-only archive PASS.
Source: consensus-med / best +144 BetOnline·LowVig · captured Oct 4, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
SD @ MIL
SM MIL 58% vs novig ~55.5% (~+2.5pp) on NLDS G2 (King vs Henderson) — too thin and SM-only with dual-model blocked.
Source: consensus-med / best -130 BetOnline·LowVig·BetUS · captured Oct 4, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
ATL @ LAD
SM LAD 60% vs novig ~58.4% (~+1.6pp) on NLDS G2 — thin; ATL starter still TBA (Snell listed home); dual-model blocked.
Source: consensus-med / best -152 BetUS · captured Oct 4, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
5 research records · source consensus-med / best +190 Bovada·BetOnline·LowVig, consensus-med / best +175 BetRivers, consensus-med / best +116 BetUS, consensus-med / best -140 BetOnline·LowVig, consensus-med / best +165 BetOnline·LowVig · captured Oct 3, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC
ATL @ LAD
SharpModels ATL 41% vs novig ~34.4% (~+6.7pp) on NLDS G1 at Dodgers — largest day-of MLB paper lean Saturday morning, but FanDuel/numberFire dated odds HTTP 500 (Official dual-model blocked), ATL probable still TBA (Skubal listed home), and Division Series G1 information uncertainty. Prefer NO BET over SM-only Official; no Bryant override.
Source: consensus-med / best +190 Bovada·BetOnline·LowVig · captured Oct 3, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
SD @ MIL
SM SD 42% vs novig ~36.1% (~+5.9pp) on NLDS G1 at Milwaukee (Ray vs Misiorowski). Same blockers as ATL: FD/nF dual-model barred, playoff G1 uncertainty, SM-only insufficient for Official.
Source: consensus-med / best +175 BetRivers · captured Oct 3, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
NYY @ TB
SM NYY 48% vs novig ~44.9% (~+3.1pp) on ALDS G1 at Rays (Cole vs Rasmussen) — thin day-of lean without dual-model confirmation.
Source: consensus-med / best +116 BetUS · captured Oct 3, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CWS @ CLE
SM CLE 60% vs novig ~57.5% (~+2.5pp) on ALDS G1 vs White Sox (Smith vs Messick) — too thin and SM-only with dual-model blocked.
Source: consensus-med / best -140 BetOnline·LowVig · captured Oct 3, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
LAR @ PHI
SM PHI 56% vs novig ~37.0% (~+19.0pp) looks huge on paper for Sunday Week 5, but Saturday research for a Sunday market with daysToKickoff≈1.1, FD/nF down, and classic SM vs market softness — archive PASS; not Saturday Official and not dual-model confirmed.
Source: consensus-med / best +165 BetOnline·LowVig · captured Oct 3, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
5 research records · source consensus-med / best +190 BetRivers, consensus-med / best +185 BetRivers, consensus-med / best +118 BetOnline·LowVig, consensus-med / best -175, consensus-med VT −2.5 (−114) · captured Oct 2, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC
SD @ MIL
SharpModels SD 42% vs novig ~34.4% (~+7.6pp) on NLDS G1 at Milwaukee — largest MLB paper lean Friday morning, but daysToKickoff≈1.4, probable pitchers TBA, FanDuel/numberFire dated odds HTTP 500 (Official dual-model blocked), and early Division Series information uncertainty. Prefer NO BET over SM-only early-series Official on a thin Friday with no day-of MLB/NFL card.
Source: consensus-med / best +190 BetRivers · captured Oct 2, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
ATL @ LAD
SM ATL 41% vs novig ~35.1% (~+5.9pp) on NLDS G1 at Dodgers. Same blockers as SD: early series, TBA starters, FD/nF dual-model barred. Desk cashed ATL WC G3 overnight via Bryant override — not a standing exception to issue Sat G1 SM-only.
Source: consensus-med / best +185 BetRivers · captured Oct 2, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
NYY @ TB
SM NYY 48% vs novig ~44.8% (~+3.2pp) on ALDS G1 at Rays — thin early-series lean without dual-model confirmation.
Source: consensus-med / best +118 BetOnline·LowVig · captured Oct 2, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
NYJ @ CHI
SM CHI 81% vs novig ~61.5% (~+19.5pp) looks huge on paper for Sunday Week 5, but Friday research for a Sunday chalk with daysToKickoff≈2, FD/nF down, and classic extreme-favorite softness — archive PASS (not a priced WATCH); revisit only with day-of dual-model refresh.
Source: consensus-med / best -175 · captured Oct 2, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
PITT @ VT
Friday CFB night slate (also Liberty@Delaware, PSU@Northwestern) screened only — Official CFB dual stack remains frozen; SharpModels CFB dated pages HTTP 404; no Official CFB path.
Source: consensus-med VT −2.5 (−114) · captured Oct 2, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
2 research records · source consensus-med / books split CLE +2.5 to +3, consensus-med / best -150 BetOnline·LowVig · captured Oct 1, 2026, 5:29 PM UTC
PIT @ CLE
Thu 10/01 Week 5 TNF; SM PIT 57%/+1.6 ≈ market novig ~57.45% PIT / CLE +3 med — no edge. FD-nF down. Morning PASS archive retained; evening override id for post-collision avoidance.
Source: consensus-med / books split CLE +2.5 to +3 · captured Oct 1, 2026, 5:29 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CWS @ CLE
ALDS G1 Sat; SM CLE 60% vs novig ~58.5% (~+1.5pp) — thin early-series lean with FD-nF down and daysToKickoff=2. Not Thursday Official board. Morning PASS archive retained; evening override id for post-collision avoidance.
Source: consensus-med / best -150 BetOnline·LowVig · captured Oct 1, 2026, 5:29 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
3 research records · source consensus-med / best -102 DraftKings·Caesars·BetUS, consensus-med / books split CLE +2.5 to +3, consensus-med / best -150 BetOnline·LowVig · captured Oct 1, 2026, 2:10 PM UTC
PHI @ ATL
SharpModels ATL 53% (+0.1) vs novig ~49.1% (~+3.9pp) on NL Wild Card G3 after PHI’s 4–3 G2 win tied the series 1–1; market still has PHI slight favorite (med −112.5 / ATL −104). Starters TBA (PHI Nola/Wheeler short-rest option; ATL Holmes bulk ± lefty opener). FanDuel/numberFire dated odds HTTP 500 (no Official dual-model). Dimers G3 win% not cleanly available (stale 9/30 hub) and is not an approved nF substitute. Prefer NO BET over SM-only Official on a winner-take-all bullpen game.
Source: consensus-med / best -102 DraftKings·Caesars·BetUS · captured Oct 1, 2026, 2:10 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
PIT @ CLE
Thu 10/01 Week 5 TNF; SM PIT 57%/+1.6 ≈ market novig ~57.45% PIT / CLE +3 med — no edge. FD-nF down. Archive PASS (not Official).
Source: consensus-med / books split CLE +2.5 to +3 · captured Oct 1, 2026, 2:10 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CWS @ CLE
ALDS G1 Sat; SM CLE 60% vs novig ~58.5% (~+1.5pp) — thin early-series lean with FD-nF down and daysToKickoff=2. Not Thursday Official board.
Source: consensus-med / best -150 BetOnline·LowVig · captured Oct 1, 2026, 2:10 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
5 research records · source consensus-med / best +102 BetUS, consensus-med / best −144 FanDuel, consensus-med / best −132 BetUS, consensus-med / best −131 LowVig·BetOnline, consensus-med CLE +2.5 · captured Sep 30, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC
PHI @ ATL
SharpModels ATL 53% (+0.2) vs novig ~48.3% (~+4.7pp) on NL Wild Card G2 after ATL took G1; market flipped to PHI −115 / ATL +100 with Mahle vs Sánchez. Dimers secondary PHI 53% / ATL 47% aligns with market and disagrees with SM — SM-only lean contested. FanDuel/numberFire dated odds still HTTP 500 (no Official dual-model). Prefer NO BET over SM-only playoff G2 dog lean.
Source: consensus-med / best +102 BetUS · captured Sep 30, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CWS @ HOU
SM HOU 59% (+0.7) vs novig ~57.3% (~+1.7pp) on AL WC G2 after CWS stole G1 (series CWS 1-0). Dimers HOU 61% ≈ SM/market. Thin SM-only playoff lean with series deficit; FD-nF dual-model blocked. Not Official.
Source: consensus-med / best −144 FanDuel · captured Sep 30, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
BOS @ NYY
SM NYY 57% vs novig ~56.1% (~+0.9pp); Dimers 57% ≈ market — no actionable Official edge. Series NYY leads 1-0; Sonny Gray vs Max Fried.
Source: consensus-med / best −132 BetUS · captured Sep 30, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CHC @ SD
SM SD 56% vs novig ~55.3% (~+0.7pp); Dimers SD 54.9% ≈ market — no actionable Official edge. Series SD leads 1-0; Kevin Gausman vs Nick Pivetta.
Source: consensus-med / best −131 LowVig·BetOnline · captured Sep 30, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
PIT @ CLE
Thu 10/01 Week 5 TNF; SM PIT 57%/+1.6 ≈ market CLE +2.5 — no edge. daysToKickoff=1 early-week bar; not Wednesday day-of board; FD-nF down. WATCH only, not Wednesday Official.
Target: 2.5 / -110
Source: consensus-med CLE +2.5 · captured Sep 30, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
6 research records · source consensus-med / best -120 BetUS·LowVig, consensus-med / DraftKings best +168, consensus-med / best -122 BetUS, consensus-med / best -128 LowVig, betonlineag / lowvig +103 at +2.5, consensus-med ML · captured Sep 29, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC
CWS @ HOU
SharpModels HOU 60% (+0.8) vs novig ~53.4% (~+6.6pp) on AL Wild Card G1; Dimers secondary ~58.1% also above market — but FanDuel/numberFire dated odds HTTP 500 (no Official dual-model), playoff G1 volatility, and Hagen Smith vs AJ Blubaugh SP uncertainty. Dimers is not an approved nF substitute. Prefer NO BET over SM-only Official.
Source: consensus-med / best -120 BetUS·LowVig · captured Sep 29, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
PHI @ ATL
SM PHI 47% vs novig ~36.7% (~+10.3pp) with ATL only +0.1 margin vs Chris Sale looks like ace/chalk softness. Dimers ATL 63.4% aligns with market novig ~63.3% and disagrees with SM soft 53%. Playoff G1 + SM-only + FD-nF down. Same filter family as Sep 25–28 extreme chalk dogs.
Source: consensus-med / DraftKings best +168 · captured Sep 29, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CHC @ SD
SM SD 56% vs novig ~53.7% (~+2.3pp) with Michael King vs Matthew Boyd — thin SM-only playoff lean; Dimers SD 54.4% ≈ market. Not Official.
Source: consensus-med / best -122 BetUS · captured Sep 29, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
BOS @ NYY
SM NYY 57% vs novig ~55.5% (~+1.5pp); Dimers 54.7% ≈ market — no actionable Official edge.
Source: consensus-med / best -128 LowVig · captured Sep 29, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
PIT @ CLE
Thu 10/01 Week 5 TNF; SM PIT 57%/+1.6 ≈ market novig ~56.9% PIT / CLE +2.5 — no edge. daysToKickoff=2 early-week bar; FD-nF down. WATCH only, not Tuesday Official.
Target: 2.5 / -110
Source: betonlineag / lowvig +103 at +2.5 · captured Sep 29, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
NYJ @ CHI
SM CHI 81% / +10.4 vs market −3.5 / novig ~61.6% is a large paper gap but daysToKickoff=5, FD-nF down, and not day-of Tuesday board. Archive WATCH for later in week if dual sources healthy — not Official today.
Target: -3.5 / -110
Source: consensus-med ML · captured Sep 29, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
6 research records · source lowvig / consensus med +3.5, consensus-med, consensus-med / BetUS best +169, draftkings-best-at-med · captured Sep 28, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC
PHI @ CHI
SharpModels projects PHI by only 0.3 (54/46) vs market PHI −3.5 (~3.8 pt gap to CHI +3.5; SM ML ~46% vs novig ~35.4%). FanDuel/numberFire dated odds HTTP 500 — dual-model bar fails. Case Keenum named CHI starter (Williams/Bagent out); Dimers-class secondary sims ~PHI 63.4% align with market and disagree with SM soft 54%. Not Official.
Source: lowvig / consensus med +3.5 · captured Sep 28, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
PHI @ CHI
Market novig ~64.6% PHI; SharpModels only 54% (against chalk). No verified positive edge for PHI ML/−3.5 without inventing nF numbers. Not Official.
Source: consensus-med · captured Sep 28, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CWS @ HOU
SharpModels HOU 60% vs novig ~55.3% (~+4.7pp) on AL Wild Card G1 Tue, but both SPs TBA, daysToKickoff=1, FD-nF down, playoff volatility — not Monday Official.
Source: consensus-med · captured Sep 28, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
PHI @ ATL
SM PHI 47% vs novig ~36.6% (~+10.4pp) with Chris Sale listed vs PHI TBA looks like ace/chalk softness + playoff G1 + SM-only + not Monday slate. Same filter family as Sep 25–26 extreme chalk dogs.
Source: consensus-med / BetUS best +169 · captured Sep 28, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CHC @ SD
SM SD 56% vs novig ~53.5% (~+2.5pp) with Michael King vs CHC TBA — thin SM-only playoff lean; not Monday Official.
Source: consensus-med · captured Sep 28, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
PIT @ CLE
Thu 10/01 Week 5 opener; daysToKickoff=3. Early-week NFL stays WATCH unless extraordinary dual confirmation — none available (FD-nF down). Not Monday Official.
Target: 2.5 / -110
Source: draftkings-best-at-med · captured Sep 28, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
10 research records · source consensus ~+9.5/+10, consensus-med / best ~+126, consensus-med / best ~+167, consensus-med / best ~+210, consensus-med / best ~+155, DraftKings consensus ~+9.5/-10, DraftKings (home +3 / +3.5 mixed), DraftKings, consensus / DK +2.5 mixed, consensus-med · captured Sep 27, 2026, 4:11 PM UTC
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
Bryant asked for NFL game after morning NO BET; first lean was MIA +10 (SM gap ~7.3 pts vs KC −9.5/−10). Rejected on cover skepticism / Miami 0-2 ATS form. Reanalysis preferred DEN +1.5.
Source: consensus ~+9.5/+10 · captured Sep 27, 2026, 4:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Morning strongest dual paper edge (nF 51.4% / SM 57% vs novig ~43.1%) but Padres clinched NL WC — clinch-rest/letup filter. Morning Official NO BET archive retained.
Source: consensus-med / best ~+126 · captured Sep 27, 2026, 4:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Houston Astros @ Athletics
Morning dual dog lean; ATH 64-97 late-season chaos archive — not Official. Morning PASS retained.
Source: consensus-med / best ~+167 · captured Sep 27, 2026, 4:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
Morning dual SF dog lean but LAD SP TBA + Dodgers clinched + extreme-chalk filter — not Official. Morning PASS retained.
Source: consensus-med / best ~+210 · captured Sep 27, 2026, 4:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Morning dual TB lean but Rays clinched AL East + Wheeler — clinch-rest filter. Morning PASS retained.
Source: consensus-med / best ~+155 · captured Sep 27, 2026, 4:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
Morning largest SM gap (~7.3 pts) but FanDuel/nF NFL 500 — single-model WATCH/PASS. Later override lean also rejected (0-2 ATS). Morning archive retained.
Source: DraftKings consensus ~+9.5/-10 · captured Sep 27, 2026, 4:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Morning SM gap ~5.7 pts; soft 55% WP; no nF dual — archive PASS.
Source: DraftKings (home +3 / +3.5 mixed) · captured Sep 27, 2026, 4:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants
Morning SM gap ~5.2 pts blocked by Dart/Winston stale-risk + steamed weather total. Morning PASS retained.
Source: DraftKings · captured Sep 27, 2026, 4:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns
Morning SM gap ~4.7 pts but line moved against SM dog lean; no nF dual. Morning PASS retained.
Source: consensus / DK +2.5 mixed · captured Sep 27, 2026, 4:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Morning nF Marlins +10.7pp but SharpModels disagrees — one-model hard PASS. Morning archive retained.
Source: consensus-med · captured Sep 27, 2026, 4:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
3 research records · source FanDuel/consensus, LowVig, FanDuel/DK consensus · captured Sep 26, 2026, 3:51 PM UTC
UCLA @ Maryland
Runner-up to VT/BC Under. PIT outdoor wind 17 mph + precip 58% at SECU; shadow total 56.5→55.5 (24h −1.0). Milder weather than nor'easter; total still high mid-50s. Not Official with VT/BC preferred.
Source: FanDuel/consensus · captured Sep 26, 2026, 3:51 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
Virginia Tech @ Boston College
Same weather may suppress VT blowout, but side≠weather mapping is looser without a model. Prefer TOTAL (Under 45.5) where thesis maps cleanly to scoring environment.
Source: LowVig · captured Sep 26, 2026, 3:51 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
JMU @ ODU
Hard chase after shadow −2.0/24h; PIT wind 18 but alt forecasts milder. Soft D-grade vs VT/BC nor'easter. Not Official.
Source: FanDuel/DK consensus · captured Sep 26, 2026, 3:51 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
7 research records · source consensus-med / FanDuel best +250, consensus-med / BetOnline best −155, consensus-med / Bovada best +139, consensus-med / BetRivers best +102, consensus-med, n/a · captured Sep 26, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC
LAD @ SF
nF 41.9% and SharpModels 39% vs novig ~29.0% (~+10–13pp) with Blake Snell vs Matt Wilkinson both confirmed, but market med −285. Classic ace/blowout spot where models soft-price extremes — same filter as Sep 25 SF vs Skubal. LAD also clinched. Not Official.
Source: consensus-med / FanDuel best +250 · captured Sep 26, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC
STL @ MIL
nF 65.4% and SM 66% vs novig ~59.2% (~+6.2–6.8pp) with Quinn Mathews vs Dustin May confirmed, but Brewers clinched NL Central (Stats API clinched=True, 101-59). Rest/letup filter — not Official.
Source: consensus-med / BetOnline best −155 · captured Sep 26, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC
HOU @ ATH
nF 49.1% and SM 45% both like ATH vs novig ~41.1% (C1: Hayden Wesneski vs Jack Perkins). Magnitude gap nF vs SM and ATH 64-96 late-season chaos keep it below Official — same archive pattern as Sep 25.
Source: consensus-med / Bovada best +139 · captured Sep 26, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC
NYM @ WSH
nF 54.3% vs novig ~48.3% (~+5.9pp) with Jonah Tong vs Connelly Early confirmed, but SharpModels only 50/50 (~+1.7pp). nF-driven dual below Official multi-factor bar.
Source: consensus-med / BetRivers best +102 · captured Sep 26, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC
KC @ MIA
SharpModels projects KC by only 2.2 (62% win) vs market Chiefs −10.5 (~8.3 pt gap to MIA +10.5). FanDuel/nF NFL unavailable (HTTP 500). Saturday morning with daysToKickoff=1 fails early-week dual-source Official bar — WATCH for Sunday re-check only.
Target: 10.5 / -110
Source: consensus-med · captured Sep 26, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC
CIN @ PIT
SharpModels projects PIT by 2.7 (55%) vs market Bengals −3.5 (~6.2 pt gap). SM-only with daysToKickoff=1 — not Official Saturday morning.
Target: 3.5 / -115
Source: consensus-med · captured Sep 26, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC
CFB Saturday slate (aggregate screen)
Official CFB stack frozen (Sep 23–25 desk). SharpModels CFB 404; FanDuel CFB HTTP 500. Odds board only — media leans insufficient for Official.
Source: n/a · captured Sep 26, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC
4 research records · source consensus-med / BetOnline best +159, consensus-med / BetRivers best +285, consensus-med / BetUS best +118, consensus / media leans · captured Sep 25, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC
HOU @ ATH
nF 48.9% and SM 45% both like ATH vs novig ~38.4% (C1: Hunter Brown vs Jacob Lopez). Magnitude gap nF vs SM and ATH 63-96 late-season chaos keep it below Official — archive only.
Source: consensus-med / BetOnline best +159 · captured Sep 25, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC
LAD @ SF
nF 34.1% / SM 39% vs novig ~26.6% looks huge on paper, but LAD lists Tarik Skubal vs Yunior Marte and market ~-330. Classic ace/blowout spot where models soft-price extremes — not Official.
Source: consensus-med / BetRivers best +285 · captured Sep 25, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC
NYM @ WSH
nF 60.4% looks massive but Mets SP TBA on Stats API/C1; SharpModels only 50/50. Hard PASS without SP.
Source: consensus-med / BetUS best +118 · captured Sep 25, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC
Clemson @ California
Friday CFB screen only (FanDuel/NBC/Covers lean Cal; VSiN lean Clemson). No SharpModels CFB / Official stack — not Official.
Source: consensus / media leans · captured Sep 25, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC
1 research record · source consensus-med / BetOnline best +154 · captured Sep 25, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC
TB @ PHI
nF 45.3% and SharpModels 46% vs novig ~39.1% (~6.2–6.9pp) with Peralta vs Sánchez both confirmed, but Rays clinched AL East (Stats API clinched=True, 96-63). Same clinch-rest/letup filter used Sep 23–24 on TB — not Official.
Source: consensus-med / BetOnline best +154 · captured Sep 25, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC
1 research record · source consensus · captured Sep 24, 2026, 2:33 PM UTC
ATL @ GB
Covers leans Under; not independently modeled to Official bar. Same game as Official spread — archive only.
Target: 43.5 / -110
Source: consensus · captured Sep 24, 2026, 2:33 PM UTC
4 research records · source BetOnline, consensus · captured Sep 24, 2026, 2:33 PM UTC
MIL @ PHI
nF 57.8% and SharpModels slight Brewers lean, but MLB Stats API lists Brewers probable pitcher TBA (Painter confirmed). Cannot Official ML without SP. BetMGM model also prefers PHI 51.6%.
Source: BetOnline · captured Sep 24, 2026, 2:33 PM UTC
CLE @ BOS
nF 62.6% vs -121 looks +7.8pp, but SharpModels only 56% / +0.4 — one-model gap.
Source: BetOnline · captured Sep 24, 2026, 2:33 PM UTC
STL @ PIT
Skenes confirmed, but SharpModels 55% vs market novig ~59% — SM fades the chalk; nF gap alone not Official.
Source: BetOnline · captured Sep 24, 2026, 2:33 PM UTC
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina
Midweek CFB; Covers lean only; CFB research frozen / no SharpModels CFB — not Official.
Source: consensus · captured Sep 24, 2026, 2:33 PM UTC
5 research records · source FanDuel, consensus · captured Sep 23, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC
STL @ PIT
Bachar confirmed opener/bullpen game (RotoWire). SP-mismatch tip narrative invalid; SharpModels ~55% PIT. Edge collapses at -130.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 23, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC
LAA @ ATH
Springs 6.18 ERA vs Ureña 2.74 — model dog fights verified SP gap.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 23, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC
TOR @ BAL G1
Bassitt vs Scherzer (6.07) real but only ~3pp; SharpModels near pick'em.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 23, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC
CLE @ BOS
USAT leans BOS; Gray vs Griffin OK; edge ~2.4pp below Official bar.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 23, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC
ATL @ GB
SharpModels ~GB by 5–6 vs market -6/-6.5 — Tue cushion (~8.1) gone; early-week WATCH only.
Target: -6.5 / -110
Source: consensus · captured Sep 23, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC
1 research record · source FanDuel · captured Sep 23, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC
TB @ NYY
nF 51.3% vs +118 looks +5.5pp, but SharpModels NYY~55%, SI leans NYY, Cole>Seymour, TB clinched AL East Tue (rest/letup). One-model dog — not Official.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 23, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC
7 research records · source FanDuel, DraftKings-ESPN, schedule-check · captured Sep 22, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC
MIL @ PHI
Same game as Official ML. FanDuel U7.5 −130 (~56.5% implied) — juice eats soft Under lean (USAT slight Under lean; Under 3-1 last 4 series meetings). ESPN/DK also shows 7.0 total on some boards — number unstable. Negative after juice; do not double-down same game.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 22, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
HOU @ SEA
Logan Gilbert (12-10, 3.69) vs Cristian Javier (2-6, 5.31) is a real SP edge, but FanDuel SEA −148 / HOU +126 prices it: numberFire SEA 58.5% vs ~59.7% implied → slight negative. DK/ESPN −137 still near-zero. Pass.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 22, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
ARI @ COL
Soroka (3.45) vs Freeland (6.38) at Coors looks like a mismatch, but FanDuel ARI −196 / COL +164 with numberFire ARI only 60.8% vs ~66.2% implied → clear negative. RL ARI −1.5 (−125) lacks a verified cover model. Pass — do not lay this price into Coors.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 22, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
MIN @ SF
Taj Bradley (11-6, 3.81) vs Anthony Molina (3-1, 4.18, 28 IP). FanDuel MIN −134 / SF +114; numberFire Twins only 50.2% vs ~57.3% implied → large negative. Pass.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 22, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CLE @ BOS
Parker Messick (12-9, 2.57) is the better SP vs Payton Tolle (9-6, 3.02), and CLE is 5-1 when Messick starts as ML dog — but numberFire still has BOS 56.6% ≈ FanDuel BOS −130 implied (~56.5%). Dog ML is model-negative. Pass.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 22, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
ATL @ GB
TNF early board WATCH only. SharpModels projects GB by ~8.1 (73% win) vs DK/ESPN GB −6 / 43.5 — ~2 pts of favorite cushion, but daysToKickoff=2: injuries, inactives, and rest unresolved. Weekday Official requires stronger evidence on early NFL numbers. Target: GB −6 (−110) closer to Thu after injury report; not Official Tuesday.
Target: -6 / -110
Source: DraftKings-ESPN · captured Sep 22, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
NO CFB GAMES
Pass: ESPN CFB schedule for Tue Sep 22 shows no FBS games. Next midweek: Liberty @ Coastal Carolina Thu 7:30 PM ET. Kentucky–Texas A&M already final Sat Sep 19 (UK 31–21).
Source: schedule-check · captured Sep 22, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
3 research records · source FanDuel/3et best; Circa +6.5 +100, consensus, Wynn/Stations (where still up) · captured Sep 21, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC
NYG @ LAR
Bryant lean investigated, not accepted as thesis. Open LAR −8.5/−9.5 → live −6.5 (Garrett IR ~1–1.5 pts + Giants Week 1 steam). Sharps liked +7 (Fogle); at +6.5 DRatings fair ~LAR −7.3 makes the dog slightly short of fair. numberFire ~79% LAR. Soft ~1.5% + heater-adjacent Sunday dog narrative = fail no-hot-ATS-as-system. Weaker than Under on number-first.
Source: FanDuel/3et best; Circa +6.5 +100 · captured Sep 21, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
NYG @ LAR
PASS: laying −6.5 after open −8.5/−9.5 is chasing steam into/through the key number. Talent/home/bounce-back narratives priced. Negative/near-zero after juice.
Source: consensus · captured Sep 21, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
NYG @ LAR
Key number preferred vs +6.5 on paper, but −120 juice (~54.5% implied) kills the soft dog edge. Only revisit at +7 −110 or better.
Source: Wynn/Stations (where still up) · captured Sep 21, 2026, 2:14 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
7 research records · source consensus-DRatings, 3et-Circa-best, consensus, FanDuel, schedule-check · captured Sep 21, 2026, 1:45 PM UTC
NYG @ LAR
Strongest near-miss: DRatings projects ~45.3 (LAR 26.3 / NYG 19.0) vs live 47.5 — about 2 pts of Under cushion. Open ~48.5 → 47.5 with Under steam (DRatings: u47.5 -106→-110 ~7:49 AM CT); VSiN reported tickets heavy Over while line fell. Giants Week 1 success-rate / long drives + Rams 3-TE / negative PROE Australia tape support a grind. Still fails weekday Official: juice often -110 to -115 (FanDuel U -115), edge compresses after the point drop, Week 2 one-game samples cut both ways, and Nacua Q / Donald debut add script variance. Soft ~2% after juice ≠ clear Official. WATCH only if Under 48 or Under 47.5 at -105 or better.
Target: 48 / -105
Source: consensus-DRatings · captured Sep 21, 2026, 1:45 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
NYG @ LAR
Also-play / Official reject: open ran as deep as LAR -8.5/-9.5 pre-Week 1; live consensus LAR -6.5 (best NYG +6.5 -102 / Circa +6.5 +100; some still +7 -120). Sharp commentary likes +7, but DRatings fair ~LAR -7.3 makes +6.5 slightly short of fair for the dog, while SharpModels ~LAR -9.6 would favor the dog — model conflict. Desk rule: never treat Sunday dog-cover heater / bounce-back failure narratives as a system. ~1.5% soft edge below weekday Official bar. WATCH target NYG +7 (-110) or better.
Target: 7 / -110
Source: 3et-Circa-best · captured Sep 21, 2026, 1:45 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
NYG @ LAR
Pass: numberFire ~79% LAR win and SharpModels ~LAR by 9.6 support the favorite, but the number already shortened from -8.5/-7 toward -6.5 — laying -6.5 chases steam into a key number. Australia flop + Garrett IR keep cover risk real. Negative/near-zero vs -110 after move.
Source: consensus · captured Sep 21, 2026, 1:45 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
TOR @ BAL
Pass: FanDuel ~9:11 AM CT BAL -112 / TOR -104, RL TOR -1.5 (+155) / BAL +1.5 (-188), total 7.5 (O -115 / U -105). Shane Baz (6-15, 4.11) vs Trey Yesavage (5-5, 3.65). numberFire BAL ~53.7–54.5% ≈ market — near-zero after juice. SP edge slightly to Yesavage but home chalk is already priced. Soft <1% ≠ Official.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 21, 2026, 1:45 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
WSH @ DET
Pass: FanDuel DET -152 / WSH +128, RL DET -1.5 (+138) / WSH +1.5 (-166), total 8.5 (O +100 / U -122). River Ryan vs DJ Herz — both listed 0-0, 0.00 ERA (soft MLB returns). numberFire DET ~58–58.8% vs ~60.3% implied at -152 → negative edge. Do not lay that price into uncertain SP quality.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 21, 2026, 1:45 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
MIN @ SF
Pass: FanDuel MIN -122 / SF +104, RL MIN -1.5 (+134) / SF +1.5 (-162), total 8.5 (O +104 / U -128). Zebby Matthews (9-10, 4.74) vs Blade Tidwell (1-2, 4.56). numberFire MIN ~52.8% vs ~55% implied → negative. SharpModels flips SF ~54% — market/model conflict. Under -128 juice-kills the park lean. No clean side.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 21, 2026, 1:45 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
NO CFB GAMES
Pass: No FBS/FCS games scheduled Monday Sep 21, 2026 (ESPN / broadcast guides). Midweek CFB not a Monday market.
Source: schedule-check · captured Sep 21, 2026, 1:45 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
5 research records · source consensus, FanDuel · captured Sep 20, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC
MIN @ CHI
Also-play reject: early Under thesis (rain/wind + Wentz) lost edge after total already cut from ~49.5 to 47.5 and SportsLine sims project ~48 / favor Over 47.5. Near-zero / negative vs current number.
Source: consensus · captured Sep 20, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
GB @ NYJ
Also-play reject: open GB −5.5 → ~−3/−3.5 with sharp support on Jets +3.5+ is real, but model fair lines disagree (~GB −3.3 to −4.8). ~1% edge — below full Official/also-play bar.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 20, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CIN @ HOU
Also-play reject: HOU D got lit up Week 1 and Nico Collins OUT helps CIN, but Burrow back is Q and +3 at −120 prices away the edge (implied ~54.5%). Not an independent stake.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 20, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
CAR @ ATL
Also-play reject: Cooper Rush / unsettled ATL QB is real, but market already swung ~3 pts toward CAR; −2.5 is mostly priced in. Near-zero.
Source: consensus · captured Sep 20, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
SEA @ ARI
Also-play reject: Lock-start risk + both defenses / slow Week 1 profiles are directionally Under, but −115 on 41.5 leaves no edge after juice. Secondary lean only.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 20, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
3 research records · source DraftKings, ESPN consensus · captured Sep 19, 2026, 10:32 AM UTC
UNC @ CLEM
Also-play reject: DRatings ~45.2 ≈ market 44.5; live DK Under -108 / Over -112. Near-zero — not an independent stake.
Source: DraftKings · captured Sep 19, 2026, 10:32 AM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
UGA @ ARK
Also-play reject: Arkansas 43-10 at Utah floor risk; ESPN still UGA -24.5 / 54.5. Residual dog only — not a stake.
Source: ESPN consensus · captured Sep 19, 2026, 10:32 AM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
SMU @ LOU
Also-play reject: LOU -1.5 / 58.5 pick'em; Jennings note insufficient for Official/also-play stake.
Source: ESPN consensus · captured Sep 19, 2026, 10:32 AM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
2 research records · source consensus ~5:20 CT · captured Sep 19, 2026, 10:28 AM UTC
UNC @ CLEM
Near-miss #2: Structural Under lean (freshman QB, Clemson 16 PPG, UNC WR outs) but DRatings projects 20.6+24.6=45.2 — on/over the number. ScoresAndOdds public 90% bets / 79% money on Over — interesting fade context, but projection vs market is near-zero. Desk rule: near-zero = NO BET.
Source: consensus ~5:20 CT · captured Sep 19, 2026, 10:28 AM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
UGA @ ARK
Near-miss #3: Covers consensus ~70% Georgia; heat/look-ahead to Oklahoma and Kirby large-number SEC splits are supporting notes only (never hot-ATS-as-system). Arkansas just lost 43-10 at Utah — floor risk too high for Official. Stuckey-style 'hold nose' dog ≠ full threshold.
Source: consensus ~5:20 CT · captured Sep 19, 2026, 10:28 AM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
1 research record · source consensus ~5:20 CT · captured Sep 19, 2026, 10:28 AM UTC
UNC @ CLEM
Near-miss #1: Powerline/DRatings fair ~CLEM -8 to -11 vs market -3 implies large model edge, and ScoresAndOdds shows ~51/49 tickets but ~64% money on UNC +3. True freshman QB Tait Reynolds first start vs Belichick pressure front (Clemson 3-of-27 3rd downs, 16 PPG) is a situational downgrade models underweight. Laying points with a first-start QB is not full Official.
Target: -3 / —
Source: consensus ~5:20 CT · captured Sep 19, 2026, 10:28 AM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
3 research records · source consensus-research · captured Sep 18, 2026, 1:18 PM UTC
Houston @ Texas Tech
Rejected vs taking TTU -7.5: buying favorite after steam against; juice often -115.
Source: consensus-research · captured Sep 18, 2026, 1:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
MIA @ WAKE
Wake Forest +20.5 vs Miami — large dog versus elite offense; number too large/uncertain for Official.
Source: consensus-research · captured Sep 18, 2026, 1:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
LSU @ OM
Ole Miss +2.5 vs LSU — Leavitt Q not OUT; soft number gone. Remain WATCH, not Official.
Target: 2.5 / -110
Source: consensus-research · captured Sep 18, 2026, 1:18 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
3 research records · source consensus-research · captured Sep 18, 2026, 1:12 PM UTC
HOU @ TTU
Strongest near-miss: Houston +7.5 after open ~12→7.5 keeps a keep-close case, but Tech home fortress (≤18 streak predictive), GTD edges, and 2-game sample offense stats leave edge near-zero/thin — not Official.
Source: consensus-research · captured Sep 18, 2026, 1:12 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
MIA @ WAKE
Wake Forest +20.5 vs Miami — large dog versus elite offense; number too large/uncertain for Official threshold.
Source: consensus-research · captured Sep 18, 2026, 1:12 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
LSU @ OM
Ole Miss +2.5 vs LSU — Leavitt upgraded Doubtful→Questionable, not OUT; soft number already gone (~LSU -2.5). Early Ole Miss + is not BET NOW until OUT.
Target: 2.5 / -110
Source: consensus-research · captured Sep 18, 2026, 1:12 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
6 research records · source FanDuel, consensus-research · captured Sep 17, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC
LAD @ CIN
Same SP mismatch as the runline, but -172 juice (~63% implied) leaves only a soft ~5pt model gap (numberFire ~68%). Weekday Official requires clearer edge after juice — pass the ML.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 17, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
SYR @ PITT
Total opened near 59.5 and crashed ~8 points to 51.5. Under thesis (Pitt 12-7, SYR 21-18; Angeli 55.7% CMP) is already priced. Chasing Under after the move fails CLV discipline. H2H Under trends are small-sample coincidence risk, not a system.
Target: 52.5 / -110
Source: consensus-research · captured Sep 17, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
DET @ BUF
Both scored 30+ in Week 1 (DET 31, BUF 36) and defenses leaked, but one-week scoring is not a predictive system. DET ruled out LG Christian Mahogany and RT Blake Miller on a short week — that can suppress Lions scoring and muddy Over math. Weather ~69F, light wind — not a clear Over/Under driver. Public/analyst Over lean is crowded.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 17, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
DET @ BUF
Prior desk WATCH on DET dog / BUF -3 re-check failed: line moved to BUF -4.5 (some -5.5) and two starting Lions OL are OUT. That weakens the dog-cover case. Not enough to flip to Bills -4.5 as Official either — home/new-stadium narrative is not an edge. numberFire ~64% BUF win vs ~70% implied at BUF -240 suggests market may overprice the chalk, but that alone is not a verified spread edge.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 17, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
ATH @ TB
Best raw SP gap on the card (Rasmussen 14-5, 2.81 ERA, 0.92 WHIP vs Springs 4-13, 5.93 ERA, 1.45 WHIP), but -275 (~73% implied) vs ~70% model → negative/near-zero edge after juice. Do not lay that price.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 17, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
BOS @ TEX
Sonny Gray (17-5, 2.76 ERA) vs Tyler Alexander (~3.37 ERA) is the best SP name on the night card, but numberFire has Rangers ~52% despite BOS -130 — market/model conflict. TEX took the last two (7-3, 4-2). No clean side: fading Gray on one model is thin (and echoes yesterday’s DET ML shape); laying -130 into a team that just beat you twice is also thin.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 17, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
1 research record · source FanDuel · captured Sep 17, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC
LAD @ CIN
Strongest near-miss: Wrobleski (11-5, 3.78 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) vs Singer (6-14, 5.38 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). numberFire ~68% LAD win vs ~63% implied at LAD ML -172 — soft theoretical ML gap. RL -1.5 at -106 is the cleaner price, but GABP variance, CIN 6-2 win yesterday, and soft model support keep this below weekday Official threshold. Soft edge ≠ clear Official edge.
Target: -1.5 / +100
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 17, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
4 research records · source FanDuel, consensus · captured Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC
LAD @ CIN
Snell (1.91 ERA, 0 HR in 37.2 IP) vs Abbott (4.78) is a real Under lean and recent series scores (4-0, 4-1) fit, but GABP + heat (~91°F) + small Snell sample leave only near-zero edge after -114 juice. Lost bake-off to DET ML.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
MIL @ PIT
Henderson (2.34 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 88.1 IP) vs Jones (4.10) supports Under, but desk cashed Under 7.5 in this series yesterday — repeating the same number/series without independent new edge fails the anti-heater safeguard. Pass.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
PHI @ WSH
Wheeler (3.14) vs Simpson (6.75) and Under +104 is attractive after total rose from 7.5, but Nationals just scored 6 in a 9-run game and models price PHI win% well below market — offense noise and Over juice (-128) leave it behind DET ML.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
DET @ BUF
TNF still early; line moved from ~-3 toward BUF -4.5. Information uncertainty on Lions secondary/PUP and Bills usage — remain WATCH, not official.
Target: 3.5 / -110
Source: consensus · captured Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
3 research records · source consensus · captured Sep 15, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC
MIL @ PIT
Same Misiorowski edge but needs multi-run margin; juice ~-142 worse hit-rate than Under 7.5
Source: consensus · captured Sep 15, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
PHI @ WSH
Sanchez vs Kent mismatch real, but road chalk juice consumes unverified edge
Source: consensus · captured Sep 15, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
DET @ BUF
Still early TNF; information uncertainty — remain WATCH not official
Target: 3 / -110
Source: consensus · captured Sep 15, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
5 research records · source consensus-research, FanDuel, DraftKings · captured Sep 15, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC
MIL @ PIT
Under fits Misiorowski’s profile and total is stable near 7.5, with ticket lean Over in morning tape — investigate signal only. Without a tested park/pitcher total model proving mispricing, fails official threshold. (id renamed after evening official Under posted)
Source: consensus-research · captured Sep 15, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
PHI @ WSH
Sanchez (17-5, 2.79) vs Kent (1-4, 6.59) is lopsided, but -220 implies ~68.8% and leaves no room without a verified fair win% above that. One public model (numberFire ~56%) actually undercuts the chalk — opposite of a playable edge. Pass.
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 15, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
LAD @ CIN
Yamamoto vs Lowder rematch after Yamamoto’s 10-K outing and Lowder’s blowup vs LAD, but Freeman availability / Dodgers IL noise and steep run-line juice keep this below threshold. No CLV edge measured.
Source: consensus-research · captured Sep 15, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
DET @ BUF
Lions safeties Branch/Joseph on PUP and Week 1 pass defense got torched, which is a real investigate angle for Bills at home on TNF. Early-line policy needs stronger evidence: Week 1 sample tiny, line still moving across books (-3 to -4.5 reported), short-week travel/rest unresolved. Not BET NOW.
Target: -3 / -110
Source: DraftKings · captured Sep 15, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
SYR @ PITT
Thursday ACC spot with a hook on 10 and possible rain is interesting, not proven. No returning-production / talent / explosive-play model work completed that beats the number. Pass / watch only.
Target: 10.5 / -110
Source: consensus-research · captured Sep 15, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
1 research record · source consensus-research · captured Sep 15, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC
MIL @ PIT
Misiorowski (1.95 ERA / 0.80 WHIP) vs Bachar is a real mismatch, but -142 on the run line plus ~85–93% public on Milwaukee prices in the narrative. Season series sits PIT 6–4. No independent fair-line / CLV estimate showing +EV after juice. Not auto-fading the public either.
Source: consensus-research · captured Sep 15, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
3 research records · source FanDuel, DraftKings · captured Sep 14, 2026, 7:15 PM UTC
DEN @ KC
Legitimate alt but Week 1/Arrowhead variance; Under has higher hit-rate profile tonight
Source: FanDuel · captured Sep 14, 2026, 7:15 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
DEN @ KC
Needs outright win; lower hit rate than +2.5 or Under
Source: DraftKings · captured Sep 14, 2026, 7:15 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
SD @ COL
Heavy juice; Coors variance; price approx model — no edge
Source: DraftKings · captured Sep 14, 2026, 7:15 PM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
3 research records · source research-notes · captured Sep 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
DEN @ KC
No verified CLV edge. Week 1 variance and thin historical ATS reads are not a number. Pass.
Source: research-notes · captured Sep 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
DEN @ KC
No verified CLV edge on the MNF total. Week 1 scoring variance. Pass.
Source: research-notes · captured Sep 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived
DET @ TOR
Research notes had DET ML around +110/+115 (not a booked price). Pythagorean / season-to-date strength is not next-game EV, and there was no verified CLV edge. Pass.
Source: research-notes · captured Sep 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC · rank scope strongest-archived